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The Problem with the Incoming Gold Nest (Looked at from an Economics viewpoint)

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  • The Problem with the Incoming Gold Nest (Looked at from an Economics viewpoint)

    As we all may or may not know, kDN has released the Golden Goblin Nest Event Thingamabob (check Vahr's blog for more info). This will eventually hit us and I've heard via the grapevine it's coming to NA next month (December Update).

    There's one small problem though: the event gives out thousands of gold (I will be describing a scenario in the following paragraphs using the economics knowledge I have from my econ class), and the event is meant to help new players get more gold. But it's not economically sensible.

    Before I get started with the scenario, here are a few terms I'll be using that would be better defined here than mid-scenario:
    • Gold Supply -- The total amount of gold in the games current economy, including assets that can be liquidated (aka items sold for gold). Assets include both tangible items (gear, crests, costumes, etc. that can be sold on marketplace and can be owned (probably better described as linked in chat)) and non-tangible items (RuDN Carries, Mentor Slots are what come to mind for this category). The gold supply is key because it is effectively the economy's value itself. Everything that can be turned into gold in some way shape or form can be counted in the Gold Supply. For real-life economics, see money supply.
    The Scenario: This will be extremely simplified, and numbers are arbitrary and may not reflect real in-game values,
    Let's say that right now, the gold supply of Dragon Nest NA is about 20,000,000,000 gold (20 billion). Let's also assume that there are about 2,000 participants (player characters that can hold gold) participating actively in the economy (aka not bots).

    December Patch arrives, Beat Up the Golden Goblin for Gold Event has arrived. Each participant gets 5,000 gold per run, 1 run a week for simplicity's sake.

    All 2,000 participants run the Beat Up the Golden Goblin for Gold Event each week, and get 5,000 gold. That's 10,000,000 gold injected into the economy each week.

    I'm guessing that when the devs say that this will help new players get more gold, they are assuming prices will stay fixed forever, meaning the value of the gold piece will not change as 10,000,000 gold is injected into the economy each week. That's just wrong. For example, jellies right now run at about 4k for 200 (20g for 1 jelly). Reflect on how easy gold is obtained (I can't speak for that because I'm perpetually broke ;_; ) in 95 cap (especially with the 93 and 95 nests giving a set amount of gold for each clear). Back in 60 cap when I started playing, the price of jellies was about 400g for 200 (2g for 1 jelly). Reflect now on how easily gold was obtained in 60 cap (NOT).

    All this thinking leads to a key economic principle: Resource scarcity. The value of a currency is determined by the ease at which it is obtained. The easier it's obtained, the more of that currency is added into the economy, the lower the value of that currency becomes, and prices as a result will increase because the items are still valued at X amount based on their scarcity. This is called inflation, and this is why the Golden Goblin Event will backfire. For real-life examples of this, see Germany post-WWI.

    Back to the Scenario. So, each week, the gold supply of Dragon Nest NA increases by 10,000,000 gold. And, given that, as mentioned earlier, the value of the gold piece will go down as more of it is injected into the economy, prices will skyrocket. 10,000,000 gold is a sizable chunk of the gold supply, expect Germany post-WWI in Dragon Nest.

    There are a few ways to combat this though, but only one is effective. The effective way is to remove the Golden Goblin Event altogether, which will prevent hyperinflation upon our already high inflation.
    Other ways include saving all the gold you get from the Golden Goblin, and only spending gold you get elsewhere. This is only short-term though, and will not be as effective because not everyone reads the forums. Once the Golden Goblin Event is gone, people will still have that stockpiled gold, and will spend it, causing even higher inflation for a short period than if they had spent all of it over the course of the event.

    If they won't remove the Golden Goblin Event altogether, the best thing we as a community can do is to restrict the gold circulating for the duration of the event and subsequent months after the event, which may not be possible because it will require MASSIVE coordination among the entire community, which in theory is nearly impossible, and in practice is beyond impossible.
    Last edited by AjiBuster499; 11-27-2017, 12:54 PM. Reason: removing unwanted emote
    Ruina: Sharshenshua
    Dragoon/Flurry: Shenaiki
    Questions? Comments? Queries? Like my attempts to troll bots? PM me on disco(rd) @AjiBuster499#6021

  • #2
    There is something wrong with you...

    This server NEEDS more gold generating content, a large fraction of the current gold is botted/tainted gold... If there is more gold to make, less players will buy gold and thus start the reduction process of the bots. As of right now our servers market is very unstable with the mass inflation due to gold buyers.

    Static costs are rising, fees still in place. Gold generating content had been removed previously, now we're about to be rewarded for our patience that will allow EVERYONE THAT PUTS FORTH EFFORT to have the gold they need to reach their goals in game.

    60-80 caps, were you here for those days? Gold was very plentiful and we had a very good and stable market. ED took out a lot of gold generating content and replaced it with gold buying, golden goblin dungeon will hopefully fill in that which was lost...

    There's something wrong with you if you have a problem with more legal gold in the server. Pretty soon f2p's will be just as strong as p2w's :P.

    This issue is being talked about right now on the SEA forums, I would direct your attention there peeps, I'm not going to write more about it here when it's been explained in great detail there.

    Cheers o/

    forum.dragonnest.com/forum/sea-forum/general-topics-aa/general-discussion-aa/108801-gold-sellers-topic-continues-feel-free-to-give-your-ideas-here
    ​​
    Last edited by ILLbeURdeath; 11-27-2017, 03:00 PM.

    Comment


    • #3
      You must not know how it works; the passes are a RARE drop so even if you farm it out; most don't clear the 14 in a week that you get. Its roughly about 3k per character without any boosts and thats if you can clear it. It is NOT equalized and is gear based. The less you kill the less you earn. This dungeon needs to happen and stay.

      Comment


      • AjiBuster499
        AjiBuster499 commented
        Editing a comment
        I heard whispers hither and thither that the pass was rare, but wasn't entirely sure. I hadn't seen evidence from a reliable source (contrary to popular belief the grapevine isn't accurate on occasion :P). And like I said numbers were arbitrary. I will admit though I didn't know it was that low. I kept hearing reports that people were walking out with upwards of 20k in their coinpurse but I guess they were the ones with +20 T2 calypso and refined genesis accessories and 95L grade gems and yeah.

      • Breamiin
        Breamiin commented
        Editing a comment
        At the moment, there's only two places to get the passes that NA have access too; dailies and ruDN 8 man. Dailies are dropped from the dimensional bunny like memory frags. Sometimes they'll be there, sometimes they won't. The only way they can get 20kg from that is drop rate increase + abundant talisman + gold boost unified level passive. You don't need calypso to clear this stuff or genesis for that matter; its not THAT difficult and theres only so many mobs you can clear in that anyway. I've seen some vids where they have made 10kg + but again, boosts were in place. Please don't think this is a bad thing, this needs to be brought to NA so that people can farm their own gold out instead of relying on merching and rng

    • #4
      Kind of worry too about MP/bird chat prices soaring after this you got a point, though It's definitely an alternative to gold buying which I am sure ED wants. Just hope they make it modest in what you need gear wise to clear it. L grade enhancement costs will go down this way though as those will remain the same since it is system based which is good. But cash shop stuff like jellies and tradable EC items will certainly rise ;-;, but I am looking forward to it anyways ^^.

      Comment


      • #5
        the pass drops from DBHC, which can be done once a day
        *
        Quis custodiet ipsos custodes?
        Who guards the guardians?

        Comment


        • #6
          well well it seems someone is starting to get desperate because your stuffs with high prices will reduce when Gold Nest hits NA server. LMAO

          Comment


          • AjiBuster499
            AjiBuster499 commented
            Editing a comment
            I'm actually eternally broke bro. Can barely afford the Rune U armor for my Ruina ._.
            Last edited by AjiBuster499; 12-14-2017, 03:47 AM. Reason: Added a face

          • Zengeroff
            Zengeroff commented
            Editing a comment
            Eh, no.

            That's not how economics works lol expensive items won't get cheaper when there's an influx of gold. They will get more expensive to meet the hyper inflation. That's how money works dude.
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