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As we all may or may not know, kDN has released the Golden Goblin Nest Event Thingamabob (check Vahr's blog for more info). This will eventually hit us and I've heard via the grapevine it's coming to NA next month (December Update).
There's one small problem though: the event gives out thousands of gold (I will be describing a scenario in the following paragraphs using the economics knowledge I have from my econ class), and the event is meant to help new players get more gold. But it's not economically sensible.
Before I get started with the scenario, here are a few terms I'll be using that would be better defined here than mid-scenario:
Let's say that right now, the gold supply of Dragon Nest NA is about 20,000,000,000 gold (20 billion). Let's also assume that there are about 2,000 participants (player characters that can hold gold) participating actively in the economy (aka not bots).
December Patch arrives, Beat Up the Golden Goblin for Gold Event has arrived. Each participant gets 5,000 gold per run, 1 run a week for simplicity's sake.
All 2,000 participants run the Beat Up the Golden Goblin for Gold Event each week, and get 5,000 gold. That's 10,000,000 gold injected into the economy each week.
I'm guessing that when the devs say that this will help new players get more gold, they are assuming prices will stay fixed forever, meaning the value of the gold piece will not change as 10,000,000 gold is injected into the economy each week. That's just wrong. For example, jellies right now run at about 4k for 200 (20g for 1 jelly). Reflect on how easy gold is obtained (I can't speak for that because I'm perpetually broke ;_; ) in 95 cap (especially with the 93 and 95 nests giving a set amount of gold for each clear). Back in 60 cap when I started playing, the price of jellies was about 400g for 200 (2g for 1 jelly). Reflect now on how easily gold was obtained in 60 cap (NOT).
All this thinking leads to a key economic principle: Resource scarcity. The value of a currency is determined by the ease at which it is obtained. The easier it's obtained, the more of that currency is added into the economy, the lower the value of that currency becomes, and prices as a result will increase because the items are still valued at X amount based on their scarcity. This is called inflation, and this is why the Golden Goblin Event will backfire. For real-life examples of this, see Germany post-WWI.
Back to the Scenario. So, each week, the gold supply of Dragon Nest NA increases by 10,000,000 gold. And, given that, as mentioned earlier, the value of the gold piece will go down as more of it is injected into the economy, prices will skyrocket. 10,000,000 gold is a sizable chunk of the gold supply, expect Germany post-WWI in Dragon Nest.
There are a few ways to combat this though, but only one is effective. The effective way is to remove the Golden Goblin Event altogether, which will prevent hyperinflation upon our already high inflation.
Other ways include saving all the gold you get from the Golden Goblin, and only spending gold you get elsewhere. This is only short-term though, and will not be as effective because not everyone reads the forums. Once the Golden Goblin Event is gone, people will still have that stockpiled gold, and will spend it, causing even higher inflation for a short period than if they had spent all of it over the course of the event.
If they won't remove the Golden Goblin Event altogether, the best thing we as a community can do is to restrict the gold circulating for the duration of the event and subsequent months after the event, which may not be possible because it will require MASSIVE coordination among the entire community, which in theory is nearly impossible, and in practice is beyond impossible.
There's one small problem though: the event gives out thousands of gold (I will be describing a scenario in the following paragraphs using the economics knowledge I have from my econ class), and the event is meant to help new players get more gold. But it's not economically sensible.
Before I get started with the scenario, here are a few terms I'll be using that would be better defined here than mid-scenario:
- Gold Supply -- The total amount of gold in the games current economy, including assets that can be liquidated (aka items sold for gold). Assets include both tangible items (gear, crests, costumes, etc. that can be sold on marketplace and can be owned (probably better described as linked in chat)) and non-tangible items (RuDN Carries, Mentor Slots are what come to mind for this category). The gold supply is key because it is effectively the economy's value itself. Everything that can be turned into gold in some way shape or form can be counted in the Gold Supply. For real-life economics, see money supply.
Let's say that right now, the gold supply of Dragon Nest NA is about 20,000,000,000 gold (20 billion). Let's also assume that there are about 2,000 participants (player characters that can hold gold) participating actively in the economy (aka not bots).
December Patch arrives, Beat Up the Golden Goblin for Gold Event has arrived. Each participant gets 5,000 gold per run, 1 run a week for simplicity's sake.
All 2,000 participants run the Beat Up the Golden Goblin for Gold Event each week, and get 5,000 gold. That's 10,000,000 gold injected into the economy each week.
I'm guessing that when the devs say that this will help new players get more gold, they are assuming prices will stay fixed forever, meaning the value of the gold piece will not change as 10,000,000 gold is injected into the economy each week. That's just wrong. For example, jellies right now run at about 4k for 200 (20g for 1 jelly). Reflect on how easy gold is obtained (I can't speak for that because I'm perpetually broke ;_; ) in 95 cap (especially with the 93 and 95 nests giving a set amount of gold for each clear). Back in 60 cap when I started playing, the price of jellies was about 400g for 200 (2g for 1 jelly). Reflect now on how easily gold was obtained in 60 cap (NOT).
All this thinking leads to a key economic principle: Resource scarcity. The value of a currency is determined by the ease at which it is obtained. The easier it's obtained, the more of that currency is added into the economy, the lower the value of that currency becomes, and prices as a result will increase because the items are still valued at X amount based on their scarcity. This is called inflation, and this is why the Golden Goblin Event will backfire. For real-life examples of this, see Germany post-WWI.
Back to the Scenario. So, each week, the gold supply of Dragon Nest NA increases by 10,000,000 gold. And, given that, as mentioned earlier, the value of the gold piece will go down as more of it is injected into the economy, prices will skyrocket. 10,000,000 gold is a sizable chunk of the gold supply, expect Germany post-WWI in Dragon Nest.
There are a few ways to combat this though, but only one is effective. The effective way is to remove the Golden Goblin Event altogether, which will prevent hyperinflation upon our already high inflation.
Other ways include saving all the gold you get from the Golden Goblin, and only spending gold you get elsewhere. This is only short-term though, and will not be as effective because not everyone reads the forums. Once the Golden Goblin Event is gone, people will still have that stockpiled gold, and will spend it, causing even higher inflation for a short period than if they had spent all of it over the course of the event.
If they won't remove the Golden Goblin Event altogether, the best thing we as a community can do is to restrict the gold circulating for the duration of the event and subsequent months after the event, which may not be possible because it will require MASSIVE coordination among the entire community, which in theory is nearly impossible, and in practice is beyond impossible.
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